The Centre for Independent Studies Research Collection

The Centre for Independent Studies Research Collection. Stay up to date with the latest CIS research, policy papers and opinion pieces and commentary. CIS promotes free choice, individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper.

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4 days ago

Australia’s government expenditure has surged to a post-war high (except for the pandemic-era spike) of 38–39% of GDP, up from 34–35% before the 2008 global financial crisis, a new Centre for Independent Studies paper outlines. In Leviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic future, economist Robert Carling warns that federal spending alone has climbed from 24–25% to 27.6% of GDP since 2012–13, fueled by a culture of entitlement and relentless program expansion in social services, defence and debt interest. Key Findings
Real per capita federal spending has risen 1.8% on average annually since 2012–13, far exceeding Australia’s 0.5% productivity growth and more than double real GDP growth.
A dozen fast-growing programs — including the NDIS, aged care, defence, schools, Medicare and child care — account for 63% of the increase in federal own-purpose spending in that period and now represent around half of such spending.
Public debt interest is projected to rise 9.5% a year for the next decade, as higher rates refinance pandemic-era borrowing and ongoing deficits push debt up further.
Off-budget ‘investments’ — from student loans to energy transition funds — add a further $104 billion in hidden spending over five years.
 Drawing on Bastiat’s warning that “the state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else”, Carling argues Australia has crossed a tipping point. “More than half of voters now rely on government for most of their income — through wages, benefits or subsidies — creating a formidable bloc against restraint,” he says. “The honeymoon of debt-funded largesse is over. Without a determined reset of expectations, Australia risks sliding into a European-style welfare state — slower growth, higher taxes and a culture where ‘voting for a living’ replaces ‘working for a living’.” Carling urges immediate expenditure reform, not just tax tinkering. His reform menu includes: 
Rolling reviews of major programs to cut waste and lift effectiveness.
Fiscal rules to cap per-capita spending growth below GDP growth.
Freeze public-service numbers and shift from consultants to permanent staff.
Shelve new spending ideas — including universal child care and expanded Medicare dental cover.
Return to structural surplus by 2029–30, echoing successful consolidations of the 1980s and 1990s.
 Robert Carling is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies and a former World Bank, IMF and federal and state Treasury economist.#auspol #economics #australiannews 

Thursday Jul 10, 2025

A new Centre for Independent Studies paper underlines the importance of developing early number sense in children, with advice for both parents and teachers, as well as invaluable exercises.In  Early Numbers, Big Ideas. Fostering Number Sense in Young Children, authors Dr Nancy C. Jordan and Dr Nancy Dyson say children's trajectories in mathematics are shaped early. and the development of early number sense will reap benefits in later schooling and adult life.  “Foundational mathematical knowledge at school entry is a strong and consistent predictor of later achievement, with effects that persist through primary and even secondary schooling,” Dr Jordan says.“Children who begin school with low numeracy skills are significantly more likely to continue struggling with mathematics across their schooling years, and early gaps in understanding tend to widen over time if left unaddressed,” she says.“All the evidence reinforces the need to ensure all children get off to a strong start in developing key foundational skills — particularly number sense — during the early years of schooling.”Number sense involves three key strands that work together — knowledge of numbers, understanding relationships between numbers, and grasping elements of number operations. Research shows that teaching all three together helps make explicit the connections between these three strands, especially for children who struggle with number sense. “Making connections between these three strands is essential for a firm foundation of number sense, starting with smaller numbers and visual representation,” Dr Jordan says. “Fluency rooted in number sense is the goal.“Instruction for the development of number sense should also use linear representations of number whenever possible to emphasise the linear nature of numbers and prepare children to think about numbers on the number line. “By the time children reach Foundation or Year One, many can see that numbers follow a linear pattern, with each number being exactly one more than the previous one.  This understanding lays the foundation for using the visual number line, a critical tool for organising and comparing all real numbers.” Dr Jordan and Dr Dyson’s paper is structured in three parts. The first section defines number sense and outlines its significance in early cognitive and mathematical development. The second section explores how difficulties with number sense arise, how they can be identified through effective early screening, and why timely identification is essential. The final section presents practical, evidence-based instructional strategies and classroom routines that educators can use to support number sense development in all learners.
 
Dr Nancy C. Jordan  the Dean Family Endowed Chair and Professor of Education at the University of Delaware. Her research centres on how children learn mathematics and why many struggle, particularly in early and middle childhood. Prof Jordan authored numerous highly cited articles, with recent work appearing in the Journal of Educational Psychology, Journal of Learning Disabilities, Developmental Psychology, and the Journal of Research on Mathematics Education, among others. Dr Nancy Dyson is a research associate at the University of Delaware where she received her doctorate, studying under Dr Nancy Jordan and Dr James Hiebert. The focus of her research is developing and testing instructional approaches and curricula for students who struggle with mathematics. She has published several articles in peer-reviewed journals and has made numerous conference presentations on this topic.

Thursday Jun 19, 2025

The re-elected government faces a long list of economic challenges, some of them created or exacerbated in its first term. This CIS review discusses some of the major challenges: budget repair; fiscal reform; productivity growth; and housing. Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/post-election-economic-challenges/ 
Subscribe to all our shows: Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/#auspol #news #economics 

Tuesday Jun 17, 2025

Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-ties-that-bind-reconciling-value-pluralism-and-national-identity-in-australia/ Executive summary
Australia’s multicultural democracy is under increasing pressure, not only from economic uncertainty but from the moral and cultural disagreements that have intensified in recent years. Deep cultural and moral diversity presents both remarkable opportunities and profound challenges for our national identity.
This report explores whether value pluralism — the recognition that people will continue to hold fundamentally different moral, religious, and cultural beliefs — is compatible with a cohesive national identity in a liberal democracy. It argues that Australia’s future cohesion depends not on suppressing disagreement, but on managing it fairly through civic institutions, democratic procedures and mutual restraint. This entails rethinking national identity in light of enduring moral diversity so cultural differences do not threaten social harmony.
Drawing on the political theory of value pluralism developed by Isaiah Berlin, John Gray and others, the report argues that civic nationalism — not ethnic or cultural nationalism – offers the best foundation for Australian identity. This model does not require moral consensus, but depends on shared political commitments: to the rule of law, democratic accountability, and the peaceful resolution of disagreement. It is a model that offers a robust framework for managing disagreement in a pluralist society.
The report draws a careful distinction between non-negotiable limits (such as prohibitions on female genital mutilation, child marriage, and ritual violence) and morally contested ‘grey zones’ where rights and values may conflict. These include religious exemptions to anti-discrimination laws, parental refusal of child vaccinations, and ritual slaughter.
It argues that these contested areas require structured negotiation, not moral coercion, and that pluralism must be bounded by core liberal principles, including human dignity and equal protection under the law. Addressing these challenges demands more than rule-setting; it requires a civic culture capable of managing moral disagreement with fairness and refrainment. To strengthen national cohesion in a context of deep moral diversity, the report proposes five exploratory policy directions:
Reform civic education to equip citizens for principled disagreement and deliberation.
Revise the citizenship test to reflect shared civic institutions rather than narrow cultural values.
Encourage voluntary intercultural dialogue, especially in communities under pressure.
Design conflict-resolution mechanisms that defuse moral clashes before they escalate.
Commission longitudinal research on public attitudes and pluralism’s institutional performance.
Rather than calling for renewed consensus around fixed national values, the report calls for a civic culture capable of managing deep diversity. It argues that Australia’s identity must be grounded not in sameness, but in the institutions and norms that allow citizens to live together amid enduring difference. Only by managing difference fairly can Australia protect its democracy, strengthen social trust and build a national identity embracing a new understanding of ‘patriotism’ fit for the challenges of the 21st century.
In "Rooftop Solar: Paradise Lost," Zoe Hilton, Michael Wu, and Aidan Morrison examine the unintended consequences of Australia's rooftop solar boom. They argue that while rooftop solar has been promoted as a means to lower electricity bills and support the environment, it has inadvertently led to increased costs for non-solar customers. The paper analyzes the financial dynamics of rooftop solar adoption, highlighting how current tariff structures result in cross-subsidies from non-solar to solar customers. It also discusses the implications for energy equity and suggests potential reforms to address these disparities.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-ties-that-bind-reconciling-value-pluralism-and-national-identity-in-australia/ Audio Produced by: Randall Evans
Subscribe to all our shows:What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/

Thursday Jun 05, 2025

The proposed tax on superannuation balances exceeding $3 million is poorly designed, economically damaging, and sets a dangerous precedent by taxing unrealised capital gains, a Centre for Independent Studies paper outlines.In How to Vandalise Savings: the New Super Tax, economist Robert Carling delivers a scathing critique of the tax, calling for the scheme to be shelved or substantially revised and deferred to a later start date than 1 July 2025.This analysis arrives at a critical juncture as the re-elected Labor government prepares to reintroduce legislation that had previously stalled before the May 2025 election.While the tax is marketed as affecting only a small number of high-balance super accounts, the paper makes clear that its impact will widen rapidly and disproportionately affect those who have saved prudently under previous rules.The new tax is often described as doubling the existing tax — which would be severe in itself — but in fact it is more than a doubling. The existing tax allows for a one-third discount of capital gains from longer held assets, which reduces the effective tax rate to 10%. This discount will not be available under the new tax. The treatment of dividend franking credits also means that tax payable will more than double on balances above $3 million.“Far from being the ‘modest change’ described by the government, this tax represents a radical shift with long-term implications for retirement planning, capital markets, and the integrity of the tax system,” Carling warns. “Doubling a rate of tax is anything but modest.”“The new tax being applied to unrealised gains will distort investment behaviour, increase compliance costs, and undermine confidence in superannuation as a long-term savings vehicle.”Carling points out that the lack of indexation for the $3m threshold is a time bomb for workers.“The threshold is not indexed to inflation or wages, meaning more Australians will be caught over time as balances naturally grow,” Carling says. “Even indexing to the CPI would not be enough, because average CPI-adjusted balances will grow as real incomes grow.”“This design flaw echoes the bracket creep issue in income tax and suggests a stealthy revenue grab.”The paper highlights the near-impossible task of applying “broadly equivalent” treatment to unfunded public sector pensions, arguing it could result in unfair double taxation and legal confusion.Carling points out that the tax is also likely to drive investors away from growth and innovation-focused assets — such as small businesses and start-ups — towards more conservative, liquid holdings, “with long-term costs to economic productivity”.“Further, despite the significance of the tax, the government has provided little in the way of theoretical justification, relying instead on administrative convenience and political rhetoric,” he says. “Making such a far-reaching change out of administrative convenience is like the tail wagging the dog.”Recommendations
Carling urges the government to delay the implementation date by at least 12 months and undertake a full review of the policy design – most importantly to resolve administrative obstacles to calculating earnings as they are now, including discounted realised gains rather than undiscounted unrealised gains.
A temporary waiver of impediments should be granted to allow those affected to shift funds out of superannuation before the tax takes effect.
Ultimately, the paper argues the tax should not proceed in any form, echoing the views of other leading economists, who have warned of its far-reaching consequences.
Robert Carling is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies and a former World Bank, IMF and federal and state Treasury economist.#auspol #supertax
Subscribe to all our shows: Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/

Monday Apr 14, 2025

In "Rooftop Solar: Paradise Lost," Zoe Hilton, Michael Wu, and Aidan Morrison examine the unintended consequences of Australia's rooftop solar boom. They argue that while rooftop solar has been promoted as a means to lower electricity bills and support the environment, it has inadvertently led to increased costs for non-solar customers. The paper analyzes the financial dynamics of rooftop solar adoption, highlighting how current tariff structures result in cross-subsidies from non-solar to solar customers. It also discusses the implications for energy equity and suggests potential reforms to address these disparities.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/rooftop-solar-paradise-lost/ Audio Produced by: Randall Evans
Subscribe to all our shows:What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/
#SolarEnergy #auspol #greenenergy 

Monday Mar 24, 2025

In "Super for Housing," Peter Tulip and Matthew Taylor explore allowing Australians to access their superannuation funds to purchase a home. He examines the rationale behind this idea, considering home equity and superannuation as alternative means of securing retirement. The paper analyzes potential impacts on housing demand and ownership rates, and discusses various approaches to implementing such a policy.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/super-for-housing/ 
Subscribe to all our shows: What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/

Thursday Mar 13, 2025

In "Fractured Loyalties: Australian Citizenship and the Crisis of Civic Virtue," Peter Kurti examines the foundational role of tolerance in secular liberal democracies, particularly in embracing religious diversity. He explores how this principle, integral to the liberal conception of citizenship, is under threat due to a concerning rise in antisemitism within Australia. Kurti argues that such intolerance not only undermines social cohesion but also erodes the civic virtues essential for a healthy democracy. Through a historical lens, he underscores the necessity of mutual respect and equal concern among citizens to maintain the fabric of civil society.
This audiobook delves into the challenges posed by diminishing civic understanding and the imperative to uphold the principles that bind a diverse nation. Listeners are invited to reflect on the importance of reinforcing civic virtues to counteract divisive forces and ensure the resilience of Australia's democratic values.
Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/fractured-loyalties-australian-citizenship-and-the-crisis-of-civic-virtue/
 
Subscribe to all our shows: What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/ 
#FracturedLoyalties #Citizenship #CivicVirtue #Democracy #Australia #Tolerance #SocialCohesion #Antisemitism #LiberalValues #PeterKurti #Audiobook #PoliticalPhilosophy #CivicEngagement #Freedom #Diversity #auspol

Monday Mar 03, 2025

Interest, Usury and the Common Good by Ian Harper and Peter Kurti
Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/interest-usury-and-the-common-good/Listen to all our papers here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ 
Delve into the intricate history and ethical debates surrounding the practice of charging interest in "Interest, Usury, and the Common Good," authored by Ian Harper and Peter Kurti. As economies evolved, so did perspectives on interest, shifting from outright prohibition to discussions about fair rates. Harper and Kurti trace this transformation, examining how the term 'usury' became associated with excessively high interest rates deemed unjustifiable. They analyze the balance between facilitating economic growth through credit and maintaining ethical lending practices that serve the common good. #Audiobook #Economics #Finance #Ethics #Usury #InterestRates #CommonGood #History #Philosophy #Christianity #CIS

Tuesday Feb 11, 2025

Less Crowded Houses. NZ’s housing policy success and implications for Australia by Stuart Donovan.Audio produced by Randall Evans. 
To read the paper: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/less-crowded-houses-the-success-of-nzs-housing-policy-reforms-and-implications-for-australia/
To become a member: https://www.cis.org.au/membership-2-step-1/ 
 
Introduction to the Paper:
Many Australians are increasingly concerned by deteriorating housing affordability and its implications for socio-economic outcomes. In a recent survey, 62% of respondents agreed that “continued increases in house prices is bad for the economy and is exacerbating wealth inequality”.[1] In another survey, around two-thirds of respondents agreed that the federal government was not doing enough to address Australia’s housing problems.[2] Analysis by the Australian Bureau of Statistics finds genuine cause for concern, with rates of home ownership for those aged 25-39 years falling from 66% to 55% in the period from 1991 to 2021.[3]
Such concerns are increasingly reflected in policy, with a recent federal government report observing that “rising housing costs” pose “challenges for many young Australians”.[4] The same report pointed to a need for housing supply to be “responsive to demand”, especially in locations that are accessible to jobs. There is indeed growing evidence that housing policy reforms can increase supply and support affordability. Perhaps most notably, rates of housing supply in New Zealand have — after a decade of reform — surged past Australia. For these reasons, this paper reviews New Zealand’s reforms and considers potential lessons for Australia.
First, the paper summarises the context to housing policy reforms in New Zealand, which have sought to streamline planning processes and enable housing in desirable locations, a process known as ‘upzoning’. The term is used here to describe changes to planning policies that enable more housing to be built, such as increased building height limits. A recurring theme in New Zealand’s housing policy reforms has been the potential distributional effects of upzoning — that is, who ‘wins’ and ‘loses’. Growing awareness of the distributional benefits of housing appears to have fostered broad-based support for reforms in New Zealand.
The paper then briefly reviews empirical evidence on the impacts of New Zealand’s housing reforms. These effects are apparent from even a cursory comparison of housing outcomes in councils that have upzoned versus those that have not. In 2023, for example, upzoned councils in Auckland, Canterbury, and Lower Hutt have accounted for around two-thirds of all the dwelling consents issued in New Zealand, which is much more than their share of the population. Several credible economic studies find upzoning supported large and rapid improvements in housing affordability as well as a rapid expansion in social housing.
Thirdly, the paper presents some preliminary analyses of New Zealand’s housing policy reforms. Whereas dwelling growth in Canterbury and Auckland initially lagged population growth, after each region was upzoned in 2011 and 2016, dwellings have grown faster than population. Moreover, analysis of data from Auckland shows the population of people aged 20-34 years grew most strongly in areas that experienced the most upzoning, and vice versa for those aged 65+ years. While more research is needed, these preliminary analyses suggest young people may have disproportionately benefited from these reforms, where benefits likely represent a ‘double dividend’ of more affordable housing and better access to jobs and amenities.
There have been several recent overviews of New Zealand’s housing reforms, including Maltman (2023), Greenaway-McGrevy (2024), Blick and Stewart (2024) and Politano (2024).  These summaries focus on estimates of the effects of Auckland’s Unitary Plan. Like this paper, they agree that upzoning led to large increases in construction and improvements in affordability.  This paper updates this earlier work, provides a broader context, and is targeted at a broad Australian audience.
To conclude, this paper argues that Australia can learn from New Zealand’s experience: enabling more housing can quickly lead to more supply and improved affordability.Read more: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/less-crowded-houses-the-success-of-nzs-housing-policy-reforms-and-implications-for-australia/#auspol #nswpol #nz #nzhousing #realestate #property #propertyinvesting 

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