The Centre for Independent Studies Research Collection

Our Prosperity is Slipping Away: Submission to Economic Reform Roundtable by Michael Stutchbury

Australia’s extraordinary modern prosperity, built on the supply-side economic liberalisation of the 1980s and 1990s and boosted by the China-fuelled resources boom, is being squandered.
In Our Prosperity is Slipping Away: Submission to Economic Reform Roundtable, Michael Stutchbury writes that urgent reform is needed to stop the slump.
“History shows such periods of relative affluence are rare and temporary, as seen in the 1850s–80s, early 1950s and late 1960s–early 1970s,” Stutchbury says. “Australia’s most recent peak in prosperity occurred in 2011–12 and has been in decline ever since.  “Rather than taking the policy decisions necessary to sustain growth, the political process has descended into a contest over redistributing shrinking wealth.  
“The Reserve Bank’s downgrading of productivity forecasts confirms an unacceptable low-growth future.” 
The paper urges the Economic Reform Roundtable to reject this trajectory and commit to making Australia “an aspirational and enterprise-driven high-growth nation bursting with investment opportunities”.  
It argues that this means reinstating credible fiscal rules, restraining government spending, and undertaking genuine tax reform — beginning with indexing personal income tax scales to curb bracket creep 
“The tax system is weighing on the economy but piecemeal 'tax reform' should not become a mechanism to validate the increase in the size of government that already has contributed to declining absolute productivity,” Stutchbury says. 
Housing shortages, caused by restrictive zoning and planning laws, must be addressed alongside a broader removal of “thickets of regulation” that stifle business dynamism. Education reform is also critical to reverse declining literacy, numeracy, and lifetime earnings. 
Finally, energy policy must restore Australia’s low-cost advantage, reversing trends that have driven up prices, undermined competitiveness, and fueled costly protectionism. 
Michael Stutchbury is Executive Director of the Centre for Independent Studies. #auspol #economics 

The Productivity Problem. Australia’s Growth Slump Is Undermining Prosperity | Jim Cox

For all references and graphs, read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-productivity-problem-australias-growth-slump-is-undermining-prosperity/ 
Key Findings:
Labour productivity growth has halved, sliding from 2.4% a year in the late 1990s to just 1.2% in recent years.
Australia is falling further behind the United States, with the productivity gap now wider than it was in the early 2000s.
Business investment – a driver of growth – is subdued, starving firms of the latest technology and techniques needed to compete globally.
Cox outlines that even small, sustained improvements in productivity compound into large gains. Conversely, persistently slow growth risks turning policy development by political parties into a zero-sum scramble for slices of a shrinking pie, undermining social cohesion and democratic norms.The paper identifies a triple threat:
Dwindling innovation diffusion, in which Australian firms are adopting new ideas more slowly than global leaders.
Rising regulatory burden, with Commonwealth legislation now containing 356,198 restrictive provisions, up 80% since 2005.
Cultural change, with surveys revealing fewer Australians now see work as “very important”, while support for environmental protection over economic growth has risen.
Cox calls for a new wave of micro-economic reform, smarter regulation that does not stifle experimentation, and a renewed national conversation about the values that underpin innovation.“Prosperity is not automatic,” Cox concludes. “It requires deliberate choices: investment in skills, encouragement of risk-taking, and institutions that reward creativity rather than rent-seeking.”“The prize is a richer, fairer and more resilient Australia.”A subsequent paper by Cox, which proposes options — including a new initiative — to best boost productivity growth rates to promote greater prosperity, will be published by CIS on Thursday, August 14.Jim Cox is a prominent economist and former Deputy Chair and board member of the Australian Energy Regulator, and former chief executive of the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal. He has held positions with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Social Policy Secretariat of the Department of Social Security.

Leviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic future | Robert Carling

Australia’s government expenditure has surged to a post-war high (except for the pandemic-era spike) of 38–39% of GDP, up from 34–35% before the 2008 global financial crisis, a new Centre for Independent Studies paper outlines. In Leviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic future, economist Robert Carling warns that federal spending alone has climbed from 24–25% to 27.6% of GDP since 2012–13, fueled by a culture of entitlement and relentless program expansion in social services, defence and debt interest. Key Findings
Real per capita federal spending has risen 1.8% on average annually since 2012–13, far exceeding Australia’s 0.5% productivity growth and more than double real GDP growth.
A dozen fast-growing programs — including the NDIS, aged care, defence, schools, Medicare and child care — account for 63% of the increase in federal own-purpose spending in that period and now represent around half of such spending.
Public debt interest is projected to rise 9.5% a year for the next decade, as higher rates refinance pandemic-era borrowing and ongoing deficits push debt up further.
Off-budget ‘investments’ — from student loans to energy transition funds — add a further $104 billion in hidden spending over five years.
 Drawing on Bastiat’s warning that “the state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else”, Carling argues Australia has crossed a tipping point. “More than half of voters now rely on government for most of their income — through wages, benefits or subsidies — creating a formidable bloc against restraint,” he says. “The honeymoon of debt-funded largesse is over. Without a determined reset of expectations, Australia risks sliding into a European-style welfare state — slower growth, higher taxes and a culture where ‘voting for a living’ replaces ‘working for a living’.” Carling urges immediate expenditure reform, not just tax tinkering. His reform menu includes: 
Rolling reviews of major programs to cut waste and lift effectiveness.
Fiscal rules to cap per-capita spending growth below GDP growth.
Freeze public-service numbers and shift from consultants to permanent staff.
Shelve new spending ideas — including universal child care and expanded Medicare dental cover.
Return to structural surplus by 2029–30, echoing successful consolidations of the 1980s and 1990s.
 Robert Carling is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies and a former World Bank, IMF and federal and state Treasury economist.#auspol #economics #australiannews 

Early Numbers, Big Ideas - Fostering Number Sense in Young Children by Nancy C. Jordan and Nancy Dyson

A new Centre for Independent Studies paper underlines the importance of developing early number sense in children, with advice for both parents and teachers, as well as invaluable exercises.In  Early Numbers, Big Ideas. Fostering Number Sense in Young Children, authors Dr Nancy C. Jordan and Dr Nancy Dyson say children's trajectories in mathematics are shaped early. and the development of early number sense will reap benefits in later schooling and adult life.  “Foundational mathematical knowledge at school entry is a strong and consistent predictor of later achievement, with effects that persist through primary and even secondary schooling,” Dr Jordan says.“Children who begin school with low numeracy skills are significantly more likely to continue struggling with mathematics across their schooling years, and early gaps in understanding tend to widen over time if left unaddressed,” she says.“All the evidence reinforces the need to ensure all children get off to a strong start in developing key foundational skills — particularly number sense — during the early years of schooling.”Number sense involves three key strands that work together — knowledge of numbers, understanding relationships between numbers, and grasping elements of number operations. Research shows that teaching all three together helps make explicit the connections between these three strands, especially for children who struggle with number sense. “Making connections between these three strands is essential for a firm foundation of number sense, starting with smaller numbers and visual representation,” Dr Jordan says. “Fluency rooted in number sense is the goal.“Instruction for the development of number sense should also use linear representations of number whenever possible to emphasise the linear nature of numbers and prepare children to think about numbers on the number line. “By the time children reach Foundation or Year One, many can see that numbers follow a linear pattern, with each number being exactly one more than the previous one.  This understanding lays the foundation for using the visual number line, a critical tool for organising and comparing all real numbers.” Dr Jordan and Dr Dyson’s paper is structured in three parts. The first section defines number sense and outlines its significance in early cognitive and mathematical development. The second section explores how difficulties with number sense arise, how they can be identified through effective early screening, and why timely identification is essential. The final section presents practical, evidence-based instructional strategies and classroom routines that educators can use to support number sense development in all learners.
 
Dr Nancy C. Jordan  the Dean Family Endowed Chair and Professor of Education at the University of Delaware. Her research centres on how children learn mathematics and why many struggle, particularly in early and middle childhood. Prof Jordan authored numerous highly cited articles, with recent work appearing in the Journal of Educational Psychology, Journal of Learning Disabilities, Developmental Psychology, and the Journal of Research on Mathematics Education, among others. Dr Nancy Dyson is a research associate at the University of Delaware where she received her doctorate, studying under Dr Nancy Jordan and Dr James Hiebert. The focus of her research is developing and testing instructional approaches and curricula for students who struggle with mathematics. She has published several articles in peer-reviewed journals and has made numerous conference presentations on this topic.

Economic Challenges Ahead for the Government: A CIS Review

The re-elected government faces a long list of economic challenges, some of them created or exacerbated in its first term. This CIS review discusses some of the major challenges: budget repair; fiscal reform; productivity growth; and housing. Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/post-election-economic-challenges/ 
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The ties that bind: Reconciling value pluralism and national identity | Peter Kurti

Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-ties-that-bind-reconciling-value-pluralism-and-national-identity-in-australia/ Executive summary
Australia’s multicultural democracy is under increasing pressure, not only from economic uncertainty but from the moral and cultural disagreements that have intensified in recent years. Deep cultural and moral diversity presents both remarkable opportunities and profound challenges for our national identity.
This report explores whether value pluralism — the recognition that people will continue to hold fundamentally different moral, religious, and cultural beliefs — is compatible with a cohesive national identity in a liberal democracy. It argues that Australia’s future cohesion depends not on suppressing disagreement, but on managing it fairly through civic institutions, democratic procedures and mutual restraint. This entails rethinking national identity in light of enduring moral diversity so cultural differences do not threaten social harmony.
Drawing on the political theory of value pluralism developed by Isaiah Berlin, John Gray and others, the report argues that civic nationalism — not ethnic or cultural nationalism – offers the best foundation for Australian identity. This model does not require moral consensus, but depends on shared political commitments: to the rule of law, democratic accountability, and the peaceful resolution of disagreement. It is a model that offers a robust framework for managing disagreement in a pluralist society.
The report draws a careful distinction between non-negotiable limits (such as prohibitions on female genital mutilation, child marriage, and ritual violence) and morally contested ‘grey zones’ where rights and values may conflict. These include religious exemptions to anti-discrimination laws, parental refusal of child vaccinations, and ritual slaughter.
It argues that these contested areas require structured negotiation, not moral coercion, and that pluralism must be bounded by core liberal principles, including human dignity and equal protection under the law. Addressing these challenges demands more than rule-setting; it requires a civic culture capable of managing moral disagreement with fairness and refrainment. To strengthen national cohesion in a context of deep moral diversity, the report proposes five exploratory policy directions:
Reform civic education to equip citizens for principled disagreement and deliberation.
Revise the citizenship test to reflect shared civic institutions rather than narrow cultural values.
Encourage voluntary intercultural dialogue, especially in communities under pressure.
Design conflict-resolution mechanisms that defuse moral clashes before they escalate.
Commission longitudinal research on public attitudes and pluralism’s institutional performance.
Rather than calling for renewed consensus around fixed national values, the report calls for a civic culture capable of managing deep diversity. It argues that Australia’s identity must be grounded not in sameness, but in the institutions and norms that allow citizens to live together amid enduring difference. Only by managing difference fairly can Australia protect its democracy, strengthen social trust and build a national identity embracing a new understanding of ‘patriotism’ fit for the challenges of the 21st century.
In "Rooftop Solar: Paradise Lost," Zoe Hilton, Michael Wu, and Aidan Morrison examine the unintended consequences of Australia's rooftop solar boom. They argue that while rooftop solar has been promoted as a means to lower electricity bills and support the environment, it has inadvertently led to increased costs for non-solar customers. The paper analyzes the financial dynamics of rooftop solar adoption, highlighting how current tariff structures result in cross-subsidies from non-solar to solar customers. It also discusses the implications for energy equity and suggests potential reforms to address these disparities.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-ties-that-bind-reconciling-value-pluralism-and-national-identity-in-australia/ Audio Produced by: Randall Evans
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The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/

How to Vandalise Savings: the New Super Tax | Robert Carling

The proposed tax on superannuation balances exceeding $3 million is poorly designed, economically damaging, and sets a dangerous precedent by taxing unrealised capital gains, a Centre for Independent Studies paper outlines.In How to Vandalise Savings: the New Super Tax, economist Robert Carling delivers a scathing critique of the tax, calling for the scheme to be shelved or substantially revised and deferred to a later start date than 1 July 2025.This analysis arrives at a critical juncture as the re-elected Labor government prepares to reintroduce legislation that had previously stalled before the May 2025 election.While the tax is marketed as affecting only a small number of high-balance super accounts, the paper makes clear that its impact will widen rapidly and disproportionately affect those who have saved prudently under previous rules.The new tax is often described as doubling the existing tax — which would be severe in itself — but in fact it is more than a doubling. The existing tax allows for a one-third discount of capital gains from longer held assets, which reduces the effective tax rate to 10%. This discount will not be available under the new tax. The treatment of dividend franking credits also means that tax payable will more than double on balances above $3 million.“Far from being the ‘modest change’ described by the government, this tax represents a radical shift with long-term implications for retirement planning, capital markets, and the integrity of the tax system,” Carling warns. “Doubling a rate of tax is anything but modest.”“The new tax being applied to unrealised gains will distort investment behaviour, increase compliance costs, and undermine confidence in superannuation as a long-term savings vehicle.”Carling points out that the lack of indexation for the $3m threshold is a time bomb for workers.“The threshold is not indexed to inflation or wages, meaning more Australians will be caught over time as balances naturally grow,” Carling says. “Even indexing to the CPI would not be enough, because average CPI-adjusted balances will grow as real incomes grow.”“This design flaw echoes the bracket creep issue in income tax and suggests a stealthy revenue grab.”The paper highlights the near-impossible task of applying “broadly equivalent” treatment to unfunded public sector pensions, arguing it could result in unfair double taxation and legal confusion.Carling points out that the tax is also likely to drive investors away from growth and innovation-focused assets — such as small businesses and start-ups — towards more conservative, liquid holdings, “with long-term costs to economic productivity”.“Further, despite the significance of the tax, the government has provided little in the way of theoretical justification, relying instead on administrative convenience and political rhetoric,” he says. “Making such a far-reaching change out of administrative convenience is like the tail wagging the dog.”Recommendations
Carling urges the government to delay the implementation date by at least 12 months and undertake a full review of the policy design – most importantly to resolve administrative obstacles to calculating earnings as they are now, including discounted realised gains rather than undiscounted unrealised gains.
A temporary waiver of impediments should be granted to allow those affected to shift funds out of superannuation before the tax takes effect.
Ultimately, the paper argues the tax should not proceed in any form, echoing the views of other leading economists, who have warned of its far-reaching consequences.
Robert Carling is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies and a former World Bank, IMF and federal and state Treasury economist.#auspol #supertax
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Rooftop Solar: Paradise Lost | Zoe Hilton, Michael Wu, and Aidan Morrison

In "Rooftop Solar: Paradise Lost," Zoe Hilton, Michael Wu, and Aidan Morrison examine the unintended consequences of Australia's rooftop solar boom. They argue that while rooftop solar has been promoted as a means to lower electricity bills and support the environment, it has inadvertently led to increased costs for non-solar customers. The paper analyzes the financial dynamics of rooftop solar adoption, highlighting how current tariff structures result in cross-subsidies from non-solar to solar customers. It also discusses the implications for energy equity and suggests potential reforms to address these disparities.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/rooftop-solar-paradise-lost/ Audio Produced by: Randall Evans
Subscribe to all our shows:What You Need to Know About delivers concise insights from CIS experts, breaking down complex topics like policy, economics, and societal challenges. Subscribe here: https://whatyouneedtoknowabout.podbean.com/ 
The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/
#SolarEnergy #auspol #greenenergy 

Super for Housing | Peter Tulip & Matthew Taylor

In "Super for Housing," Peter Tulip and Matthew Taylor explore allowing Australians to access their superannuation funds to purchase a home. He examines the rationale behind this idea, considering home equity and superannuation as alternative means of securing retirement. The paper analyzes potential impacts on housing demand and ownership rates, and discusses various approaches to implementing such a policy.Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/super-for-housing/ 
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The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/

Fractured Loyalties. Australian citizenship and the crisis of civic virtue | Peter Kurti

In "Fractured Loyalties: Australian Citizenship and the Crisis of Civic Virtue," Peter Kurti examines the foundational role of tolerance in secular liberal democracies, particularly in embracing religious diversity. He explores how this principle, integral to the liberal conception of citizenship, is under threat due to a concerning rise in antisemitism within Australia. Kurti argues that such intolerance not only undermines social cohesion but also erodes the civic virtues essential for a healthy democracy. Through a historical lens, he underscores the necessity of mutual respect and equal concern among citizens to maintain the fabric of civil society.
This audiobook delves into the challenges posed by diminishing civic understanding and the imperative to uphold the principles that bind a diverse nation. Listeners are invited to reflect on the importance of reinforcing civic virtues to counteract divisive forces and ensure the resilience of Australia's democratic values.
Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/fractured-loyalties-australian-citizenship-and-the-crisis-of-civic-virtue/
 
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The CIS Research Collection delivers our research papers in an audio format so that you can listen to them on the go. Subscribe here: https://cisresearch.podbean.com/ Liberalism in Question features thought-provoking interviews with world experts in politics and culture from a Classical Liberal perspective. Subscribe here: https://liberalisminquestion.podbean.com/ CIS Events Experience: From the studios of CIS our events team brings you engaging discussions from our live events, featuring lectures, panel discussions, and conversations with leading experts: https://cisevents.podbean.com/ 
#FracturedLoyalties #Citizenship #CivicVirtue #Democracy #Australia #Tolerance #SocialCohesion #Antisemitism #LiberalValues #PeterKurti #Audiobook #PoliticalPhilosophy #CivicEngagement #Freedom #Diversity #auspol